GreenTrees Reforestation

526,702 tonnes

The project mitigates reversal risk by identifying and managing potential causes of unintentional reversals of project carbon sequestration — in this case, tree death from wildfire, disease, drought, or wind. Each issue is addressed in the PDD under section B8. The project faces very low natural risk. Project lands are moist and rarely dry enough to burn. Cumulatively, from 1991 through 2005, less than 0.1% of the Mississippi delta physiographic region (the region where project lands are located) forests burned. Ignitions are frequent, but only a small area burns. Disease is not a major factor in Mississippi forests. Research for this project revealed concerns about Southern Pine Beetle, Laurel Wilt Disease, and Redbay Ambrosia Beetle, but disease and pests appear to be minor enough that mortality is not regularly surveyed. For example, review of the Mississippi Forestry Commission forest health web pages did not review any quantification of the extent of tree mortality from disease. Also, the tree species most at risk are not planted on project lands. The project plants biodiverse and pest/disease resistant species. Wind disturbance also appears to be only a modest hazard to project forests. The 2009 Forest Service forest inventory report states that despite significant damage to trees in Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Mississippi’s total tree volume increased by 25 percent from the inventory conducted in 1994 to the 2006 inventory. Despite being miles from the Gulf Coast, major wind disturbance events conceivably could occur as frequently as every 10-25 years. However, even with a loss of live tree standing stock there is likely to be little or no decrease in on-site carbon stocks and wind disturbance is judged to have a transient loss. Full recovery is expected within 10 years and this risk is rated “insignificant.” Drought is becoming more of an issue as the global climate changes however, a recent U.S. Forest Service analysis finds that Mississippi forests should be more protected from drought than most other forests because the project focuses on bottomlands, which tend to have the water table within reach of tree roots. Flooding is common on project lands and, once established, planted species are very tolerant of flooding. If extensive flooding occurs during the year of planting, growth is delayed but there is no reversal of sequestration and the risk of drought and flood loss is insignificant. Species selection mitigates flood risk and site selection mitigates drought risk.

In the event of a potential reversal, the project's buffer pool acts as a safety measure to cover the potential loss of carbon credits. A risk analysis was performed using the VCS AFOLU Non-Permanence Risk Tool (Version 3.0). With this tool, a risk factor of 20.5% was established, along with a corresponding buffer pool.

Please refer to Section 5 in the methodology document.